Weekly Update
17 March, 2026
Hello everyone,
Here is why I think the current price movements is a fakeout.
News Events
Iran granted Hormuz passage to Indian and Turkish vessels while maintaining the blockade on Western-allied shipping
Trump called for multinational naval coalition to secure Hormuz, naming China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK.
Iran’s FM Araghchi stated “we were never asked for a ceasefire”, directly contradicting Trump’s earlier claims. The IRGC vowed to pursue and kill Netanyahu. Israel eliminated two senior Iranian intelligence officials over the weekend. Over 15,000 targets have been struck by US/Isreali forces. Up to 3.2 million displaced in Iran.
Gulf states continue absorbing Iranian attacks: Saudi Arabia intercepted 10 drones over Riyadh Sunday. Bahrain has intercepted 125 missiles and 203 drones sine the war began. The Fujairah oil terminal (UAE’s last functioning bypass route) remains partially suspended after Saturday’s drone strike, and Dubai airport was recently hit.
Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino says his AI team “will release a true breakthrough this coming week.
Upcoming Events
Mar 18th - FOMC meeting (2:30pm EST) + Feb PPI
End of March - Navy escort operations (per Energy Sec Wright)
TBD - Trump’s proposed Hormuz naval coalition announcement (WSJ: “soon”)
Traditional Finance Sector
S&P500
The S&P500 has dropped significantly since the last update. If you recall, I mentioned how a close below 6885 would lead to a drop, and we bounced off 6575. It does look like a bit of a relief rally, however I would not be surprised if we continue to see the S&P break down further. A weekly close below 6570 would be the beginning a much further drop.
Gold
Gold has been interesting recently. It is finding support around the 5000 level. However, there is an argument to be made that the reason gold went up was because insiders knew a war was coming, which means if there is a sell off on gold, that might be signs of a ceasefire.
Oil
Oil continues to be very volatile. Iran has said that certain countries can travel through Hormuz which has relieved the price a bit, but any negative news could likely send us back over $100.
US Dollar
The DXY has rejected around the 100 level, which would explain why stocks and crypto have gone up, however as the war continues, this will likely rise.
Crypto Sector
Market Cap: $2.656T
Fear & Greed: 48
ETF Flows
Bitcoin - 7D NetFlow: +10,225 $BTC(+$752.57M)
Ethereum- 7D NetFlow: +49,820 $ETH(+$113.69M)
Solana - 7D NetFlow: +101,441 $SOL(+$9.54M)
Bitcoin
BTC has closed the week green for the first time in a while, which happened last cycle during the 2022 mid-term year. BTC went up roughly 45% from the February low, which would put BTC around 88k. Indicators are still in an overbought zone, so I would tread lightly until we see those cool off.
Ethereum
ETH is skyrocketing as well, flying through resistance and having a pullback at 2385 area. Indicators are still overbought.
USDT Dominance
USDT Dominance is starting to have a correction, signifying that people are deploying capital rather than holding cash on the side. On-chain I am still seeing a lot of smart money either short, or hold USDT so I believe this is a lot of whales and retail making this move.
Summary
We have the FOMC meeting coming up which will be a big talking point this week. Most already know there will be no changes but it's the outlook that matters. Oil isn't doing any favors either. Core PCE is already at 3.1%, and oil at these levels will add at least another 0.3 percentage points to headline inflation in March per Oxford Economics. The Fed can't cut into rising inflation and can't hike into 0.7% GDP growth. Stagflation isn't a risk anymore, it's the baseline. Iran's selective Hormuz regime is the most strategic move of the war. By granting passage to India and Turkey while blocking Western allies, they're creating a two-tier global energy system in real time. Countries that stay neutral get oil. Countries aligned with the US don't. If China joins this arrangement (and the yuan-denominated passage discussions suggest they're exploring it), the petrodollar fracture becomes structural. We know have to wait and see if other countries answer Trump's coalition call. Although despite all of this, BTC remains resilient. The FOMC sell-the-news pattern (7 of 8 meetings) is the main risk. If Powell delivers a hawkish hold with zero cuts in the dot plot, the pullback to $68-70k is the buying opportunity. If the dots show even one cut maintained with cautious language, $74k breaks and $78-80k is the next stop. Reduce leverage before Wednesday and let the dust settle post-announcement.